The Black Swan. When the improbable turns your museum upside down.

How the concrete threat of a pandemic can help us change our vision of culture

You have surely read or know the book “The Black Swan” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, professor of the Science of Uncertainty, essayist, humanist and philosopher.

The origin of the title rests on the observation of the Latin poet Juvenal who, referring to the fragility of systems disproved by something rare, compared this phenomenon to a rare bird like a black swan “rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno” .

Over time, the Black Swan became a metaphor to describe an unforeseen event with major consequences, one that in hindsight is inappropriately rationalized and judged as predictable.

But let's get back to today.

Is Coronavirus the Black Swan the museum world was "waiting" for?

In light of what is happening, the question I ask is: can COVID-19 as it has been classified, be the unexpected event that demolishes old, pre-established patterns?

The statement I'm making is a strong one, but consider it.

An epidemic that seemed contained, having become global, is having disproportionate effects, completely changing the context we live in, bringing the market and our routine to a halt.

The production chain is jamming, investments and consumption are slowing, and operators across every sector are shaking.
The impact of Coronavirus is starting to be felt heavily in the Italian tourism sector too, causing:

• the closure of museums, theaters, archaeological parks, abbeys and churches;
• the cancellation of events and public gatherings;
• an increase in booking cancellations at venues, even in areas not considered at risk.

And this is just the tip of the iceberg.
Was this a highly predictable situation? Can it still not be defined as a Black Swan?
I'll leave that to the economics professors to weigh in on.

Right now the priority isn't so much understanding "whether" there will be a negative effect on the world of culture, but "how much" it will hurt, how long it might last and, above all, how to deal with it.

Educated before educating

When I wrote the book Ogni Maledetto Museo in 2019, I did so with the aim of spreading a certain kind of entrepreneurial vision and, given the high chances of closure facing 81% of Italian institutions, to put the world of culture on alert.

Over the past few months, I have also tried to raise awareness among more and more directors, curators and public administrators on this topic.
Some understood it and were enthusiastic about my approach.
Others dismissed me, saying "Who knows why my museum has to be at risk of closing…"
These same people, in the country's most recent hours of emergency, called me a "bird of ill omen".
But is it my fault that I was preaching that the entire system rested on outdated pillars that would never withstand an external shock?
In the end, there's only one truth.

“When the Black Swan arrives, it surprises. It forces us to change how we see things, it dismantles the certainties or prejudices of any kind of activity, including those of our museums”.

This unforeseen event must accelerate cultural institutions' awareness that they are in the middle of a process of deep societal change, driven by the need to evolve in order to survive, one that will use new ways and languages, strongly influenced by digital technology.

A strong acceleration in museum innovation is on the horizon, one that will push institutions to test and refine different uses of technology to meet the needs of the modern tourist, who won't necessarily be inside our venue.

What we can do together is prepare the playing field as best as possible, making room for a new way of thinking in a world that is changing radically.